All hail the surge!
25 02 2008While Rolling Stone may not be known for the most unbiased reporting around, but their article on the surge underscores some significant issues surrounding the surge that has become everyone’s darling lately. Proponents have been saying the reduction in violence over the past 8 months is a clear sign that we are now decisively winning the war in Iraq. Unfortunately, that’s based on a definition of victory that has been so watered down over the past four years, that there’s practically dancing in the streets over the fact that only one soldier is dying every day over there and political progress remains stagnate.
The other problem is that no one seems to try to figure out why there’s been a reduction of violence over the past 8 months. Could this have something to do with it?
“The only reason anything works or anybody deals with us is because we give them money,” says a young Army intelligence officer.
“We are essentially supporting a quasi-feudal devolution of authority to armed enclaves, which exist at the expense of central government authority,” says Chas Freeman, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia under the first President Bush. “Those we are arming and training are arming and training themselves not to facilitate our objectives but to pursue their own objectives vis-a-vis other Iraqis. It means that the sectarian and ethnic conflicts that are now suppressed are likely to burst out with even greater ferocity in the future.”
It’s not easy to say (I’m generally an interventionist) but I’ve felt for awhile that Iraq is going to disintegrate into civil war and a lot of blood will be shed. Our options and ability to influence events are very limited. In my opinion, we can choose whether that civil will happen sooner or later. The longer we delay it (and provide the future combatants with money and weapons) the bigger the body county will be.
Why has violence gone down? Perhaps it’s because the insurgents think they’ve already won. They know that we won’t stay there forever. If the Americans want to hand out cash for ‘being good’ why not take it and prepare for the big fight that’s coming?
Osama himself makes no secret of his hatred for the Shiite government and its security forces. As we walk by a checkpoint manned by the Iraqi National Police, which is comprised almost entirely of Shiites, Osama looks at the uniformed officers in disgust. “I want to kill them,” he tells me, “but the Americans make us work together.”
If anyone was really serious about stabilizing Iraq, we’d see an attempt to give potential insurgents a stake in the existing system. Unemployment in Iraq is hovering around 60%. While handing out weapons and paying thousands of young, pissed off men to be militia men is quick it’s not the best idea for a jobs program. We’re just prepping guys for the next fight.
Instead, the money should go to a massive, civilian jobs program along the lines of the Civilian Conservation Corps. Have them build roads, parks, clear debris, etc. Quite honestly, it doesn’t matter if you have one group of guys stack rocks in one place and another group of guys to move the stack somewhere else. Get those guys working (ideally physically exhausting work) and paid by the central government (so that they’ll understand that if the government goes so do the checks). The key (and this is the tough part) is that the program needs to be so big that the corruption and cronyism that is everywhere in Iraq is just swamped. There needs to be so many jobs available that any eligible worker can get one without a bribe or having to be from the right tribe or sect.
Maj. Pat Garrett, who works with the 2-2 Stryker Cavalry Regiment, is already having trouble figuring out what to do with all the new militiamen in his district. There are too few openings in the Iraqi security forces to absorb them all, even if the Shiite-dominated government agreed to integrate them. Garrett is placing his hopes on vocational-training centers that offer instruction in auto repair, carpentry, blacksmithing and English. “At the end of the day, they want a legitimate living,”
So, why are we giving them guns?
Since the Americans often require that each mahala, or neighborhood, have two ISV bosses, Osama has given half of his 300 men to Abu Salih, a man with dark reddish skin, a sharp nose and small piercing eyes. “We know Abu Salih is former Al Qaeda of Iraq,” a U.S. Army officer from the area tells me. In fact, when I meet with him, Abu Salih freely admits that some of his men belonged to Al Qaeda. They joined the American-sponsored militias, he says, so they could have an identity card as protection should they get arrested.
Oh yeah, I just know this is going to turn out well.
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