Intelligence profiling the candidates

I wasn’t intending on writing about the campaign but I’m finding interesting things (at least for me) to say so I’ll just cave in and try not to repeat what everyone else is writing.

Fortunately, this ties in to one of the themes of this blog:  Intelligence Analysis.

I just finished taking a class called Intelligence Profiling which is described as:  Students in this course will study personality profile fundamentals of foreign military and political leaders. They will study personality assessment from a psychoanalytic viewpoint, observe questions asked by intelligence agencies, study several various military and political leaders in depth.

So, when I came across this article I read it with a slightly different perspective.  Here are the relevant points:

Before he became her enemy, Nick Carney was actually Palin’s mentor–though, like John McCain, his reasons for championing her had much to do with his own political agenda. In the early ’90s, Carney and a group of local business leaders decided the city needed a sales tax to fund public services–such as a police force–it could no longer live without…”We were lacking lines of communication between the council as it existed and the younger bloc of voters in town,” recalls Carney. “We didn’t have anyone on there who worked [as a laborer] for a living or who was a housewife.”…They invited her to attend a “Watch on Wasilla” meeting and, after a brief interview, asked her to run on their moderate plank. Carney introduced her to local business leaders and campaigned alongside her. “I took her around . .. and said, ‘This is a person who supports our points of view. She’ll do what she can to make the police force run.’…Palin breezed into office with Carney that October.

By 1996, a cultural shift in Alaska had emboldened Palin to take on Carney and Stein and enforce her own sense of right…Palin was also asserting herself more and more. For example, she’d demand to know why Stein, the mayor, had “raised the budget.” Stein and Carney tried to explain that he’d done nothing of the kind–that, when a city grows, businesses collect more in tax revenue, but that new residents also increase demand for public services. Palin wasn’t appeased…Carney saw ulterior motives…Within a few months, Palin was officially challenging Stein and exploiting the cultural shift masterfully.

In 2003, then Governor Frank Murkowski appointed Palin to be the “public member” on the three-person Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (AOGCC). She resigned from the position eleven months later and, not long after, helped bring to light the ethical problems of a fellow commissioner named Randy Ruedrich.  She later defeated Murkowski to become Governor.

I was thinking about some recent events on the campaign trail and wonder if I’m seeing a pattern.  It looks like people raise Pallin up, in an effort to enhance their own political fortunes and she then works to establish her own power base and overthrow those originally supported her.  In every case, it seems, those who enlist her underestimate her abilities and ambition.  That might be potentially troubling for McCain if he wins, but I suspect things might not go well for him if he looses either.  Consider:

• Palin has publicly differed with McCain about drilling in ANWAR. This has been presented as a proof that the two are ‘mavericks’ but bear with me on this.
• Palin has publicly contradicted McCain’s position (twice) on launching attacks into Pakistan
• Palin has recommended McCain ‘take the gloves off‘ at his second debate.  He clearly did not and steered away from personal attacks.
• Palin has publicly questioned the wisdom of the decision of John McCain in withdrawing from Michigan.

So, perhaps I’m in a conspiracy theorist mindset but it seems to me that Palin can be setting up a quite compelling narrative.  She can argue that she knew how to win but John McCain (who conservatives don’t like anyway) hamstrung her efforts (remember the Free Sarah! movement?).  It’s the old ‘stabbed in the back‘ story with McCain sabotaging the GOP chances for a win and Palin fighting the good fight.  It certainly would go a long way to cementing her long term credentials to the GOP base and sets her up well for a future presidential bid.

I expect we’ll start hearing stories after the election stories about disputes between Palin and McCain about strategy, policy and tactics (with Palin on the ‘right’ but losing side) which will grow through retelling.  McCain will end up the loser as he’ll be despised by Republicans for losing and by Democrates for running and increasingly dirty campaign.

As a side note, it’s interesting that she seems to be obsessed (maybe that’s a bit strong) with loyalty among those under her.  Perhaps that’s because she’s on the alert of being ‘out-Palined’?

Update: Additional evidence #1.  “How Sarah Palin Saved America”