May I recommend…

23 12 2009

Dispatches from a fragile island is a blog I stumbled upon today that looks quite interesting.  The author, Mark Turner, has, with his son in tow, joined his wife in Haiti while she is involved in the peacekeeping mission there.  He’s a formal journalist and so knows how to put a story together in short, engaging pieces and gives us a view of daily life in Haiti we aren’t likely to get elsewhere.

Well, let’s face it, you aren’t likely to hear much about the peacekeeping mission in Haiti from any perspective.

He began back in November so there isn’t much history to catch up on if you hate starting things in the middle.





Time to teach the pony another trick

16 12 2009

Peter over at the Strategist had a post up about an article by John P. Sullivan.  I’ve written about Sullivan before and I really don’t know what it is about this guy but he really gets under my skin.  Perhaps it’s because I’m jealous he keeps getting quoted and  published even though he has nothing original to say (I suspect a social network analysis of Mr. Sullivan would be much more informative about how he manages to be quoted as an expert rather than an examination of his writings).  Never mind what he does say is total gibberish, it’s not even interesting gibberish.

I didn’t want to read it.  Lord knows, I didn’t really need to read it since once you’ve read one of Sullivan’s articles you’ve read them all (almost literally since he tends to cite himself as a source to prove his arguments) but I just can’t let it go.  So, here’s my take on…Global Cities – Global Gangs (yeah…don’t get too excited about that title).

…a rise in newer, networked ‘third generation gangs’ in increasingly ‘global’ cities means that the street gang is becoming an aspect of foreign policy warranting attention and combined domestic and international cooperation.

Whoa…newer, networked gangs?  Sounds scary.  Well, wait a minute.  I guess they really aren’t that new since Sullivan has been attempting to peddle his theory for over ten years now.  What exactly is a ‘third generation gang’? Well, accoring to Sullivan:

Third generation gangs have evolved political aims, operate or seek to operate at the global end of the spectrum, and employ their sophistication to acquire power, money, and engage in mercenary or political activities. To date, these gangs have been primarily mercenary in orientation; yet, in some cases they seek political and social objectives. Examples of third generation gangs can be seen in Chicago, San Diego, Los Angeles, Brazil, South Africa, and throughout Central America.

Of course this definition is so vague it’s worthless unless you just want to cherry pick examples and make it looks like it fits your theory.  What does ‘global end of the spectrum’ mean?  Is a member of the bloods who works with a Dominican to transport cocaine from Mexico qualify?  I don’t know and you won’t either because Sullivan can’t be bothered with little things like details.

The most obvious third generation examples are MS-13 and M-18, which conduct business internationally across many parts of the Americas. MS-13 is estimated to have 8,000-10,000 members and M-18 30,000 members, although telling hardcore maras from affiliates and associates is problematic.

This whole paragraph is bullshit.  First off, MS-13 exists in the U.S. and Central America, however those gangs manifest themselves in very different ways and there isn’t much other than wild speculation to indicate that the gang is organized in any sense of the term.  Most gangs in the U.S. are really best thought of as a franchise business.  Members think there are benefits to attaching themselves to a ‘big name’ gang but generally resist control or being crammed into any strict hierarchy because they’re profit seeking criminals.

As an aside, I think one of the real beauties of the American system is that even those who refuse to work outside of it’s boundaries don’t want to destroy it, they just want a quicker path to the top.  I suspect that’s why we see the disenfranchised and ‘have-nots’ join criminal gangs and not so much politically motivated groups.

No one, and I mean NO ONE, can give you membership estimates of gangs that are anything other than wild guesses.  Even if you could get an accurate number, however, it’s value would be highly questionable since gang membership is a very slippery thing.  Most gang members in the U.S. only stay in for 2 years or so before dropping out (growing up and family life tend to calm most young men down – read Clockwork Orange).  Too often, throwing out a number like ‘8,000 members’! gives the impression that you’ve got an army at your command ready to hop to at a moments notice.  The truth is that the vast majority of gang members (at least in the U.S.) don’t work that way.  You’ve a relatively small percentage of sociopathic crazies and the rest are fairly rational actors who are at various levels of loyalty to their gang.  I sure wouldn’t count of them to stand by me in a fight.

Yet other gangs elsewhere in the world combine political aims and criminal action.  These include the Latin Kings active in the US, Caribbean, and Spain; Tamil gangs in Toronto linked with Sri Lanka’s LTTE, gangs (like the Premier Capitol Command-PCC and Red Command) and vigilante militias in Brazil’s favelas, as well as Cape-area gangs in South Africa like ‘Hard Livings’ and their bitter foes, the vigilante group Pagad (People against gangsterism and drugs).

There is no way on Earth that the Latin Kings can be compared to the LTTE.  None.  Full stop.  Whoever checked this article should have thrown it out at this point.  A gang trying to bribe a local councilman in order to get the authorities off their back so they can peddle their drugs is not the same thing as a decades long counterinsurgency campaign.  While the Latin Kings have very lofty rhetoric (and, incidentally, a completely incomprehensible ideology which appears to have been written by someone who had enough time on his hands to read various religious and philosophical texts but unfortunately lacked the ability to comprehend most of what he read) but it was, is and always will be a group of profit seeking criminals.  In my experience, gangs spend a great deal of time and effort to emphasize what a tight knit organization they are and how all the members need to be prepared to sacrifice for the group.  That’s usually an indication that the group leaks like a sieve and they’re all planning on how to stab each other in the back.

Just because one gang is represented in multiple places does NOT mean they are connected.  Just because a gang has connectivity over distance does NOT mean that’s a systemic characteristic of the gang.  Usually it means there’s a personal relationship involved and the connectivity does not survive beyond it.

“some networked street gangs are increasingly the locus of political authority and popular resistance against corrupt local governments that no longer provide social benefits. They attract local allegiance while expanding their own profits and power”

This is not new and does not require some sort of ‘3rd generation gang’ framework.  It’s common sense.  Human societies hate a vacuum as much as nature does.  When government retreats from an area, something will move in to take its place, usually that something is able to muster the brute force to impose it’s will.  Gangs can (and do) do that.

Networked gangs and criminal insurgents are in many ways an updated version of an old phenomenon.

So why in the world did you just say that they were a new threat?  He really should have left that whole paragraph out because it just makes him sound irrelevant.  If we already have a way to talk about these gangs, why do we need a new lexicon?  What is the utility of this generational model?  I mean other than creating a false sense of progression?

It operates on a multinational level, running a number of organized-crime style businesses and front organizations as opposed to simple opportunistic crime. It is heavily plugged into what is now a global illicit economy. In some areas where government is weak, it can offer alternative, parallel forms of sovereignty.

Sounds a lot like the mafia (who street gangs in the U.S. idolize and try to emulate at every opportunity).  So, the mafia are 3rd generation gangs?  But they’ve been around for decades as have other, similar criminal groups.  It sounds to me like this is taking old gangs, festooning them with fancy words like ‘networked’ and presenting a scary picture of them all decked out in iPhones and viola!  I’ve got myself a gig at a think-tank!

In Brazil, the leader of the PCC was also found in his jail cell with copies of books by activists and philosophers such as Malcolm X and Karl Marx

So what?  Plain fluff designed to make you think you’re being told something but you’re not.  Hey, I read Marx in college, does that mean I’m going to try to lead the proletarian revolution?  A weak argument at best.

Other than that there’s a lot of blah, blah about Mexico and Brazil.  Hey, guess what, they’re called failing states for a reason.

But I’ll end on a positive note and that is I agree whole-heartedly with his conclusion:

Most importantly, a new way of thinking about gangs is needed in order to stem the threat. Gangs should not be viewed primarily as social deviants who need to be crushed nor underestimated as purely commercial and petty youths squabbling over turf. Gangs need to be recognized as emergent social actors that combine the popular appeal of social bandits with the globalized reach that only organized crime once possessed. Solutions should not be rooted in brute force crackdowns nor conducted on a purely domestic basis.   Rather, security should form a foundation for a viable community; blending competent application of the rule of law with solutions that build resilient community structures that enable legitimate opportunity for social, economic, and political activity.

So, I’m not sure how I should feel about this.  I endorse his conclusion but hate his methodology.  I think my problem is that it looks to me like he’s so bonded to his crazy gang generations theory he’s got to fly all sorts of circles to get at a reasonable ending.  Just drop it, man.  Remember the rule.





No goats, no glory

13 11 2009

So, on Veteran’s Day, we went to see The Men Who Stare at Goats.  As a movie it has its flaws.  Ewan McGregor’s character has some backstory that isn’t particularly relevant, the movie runs two narratives simultaneously (one in 1980s Ft. Bragg and the other in Iraq circa 2003) and the transitions aren’t always the smoothest, and (most importantly) towards the end the movie seems to flirt with more serious issues that creates a bit of dissonance.

That being said, we both enjoyed the film.  The storyline reminded me vaguely of the feel of a movie like Kelly’s Heroes (and don’t hold me to that, I last saw that movie more than 20 years ago and so can only say that it reminds me of the impression it gave me as a teenager).  It’s the story of a group of misfits who want to do their thing which may not be exactly what the Army wants them to do.  This may be the first movie with an Iraq War theme that manages a few laughs.

I don’t know if I’d recommend you spend $20 to go see it in the theater but I wouldn’t pass it up on cable or DVD.  It does have some very good moments.

And following what appears to be the movie meme of the decade (appropriately so, I might add), the film takes some nice shots at private military contractors who, I suspect, are on their way to becoming the go to bad guys for the next several years.  Remember, post Vietnam when it seemed that every movie had some CIA plot behind it?  Well, we’ve got somebody new to kick around now.

I’d recommend checking out the book to find out which parts are true and which the film embellished (hint:  most of the Iraq stuff wasn’t…except for the stuff about Barney).

Also, the film made me realize how totally awesome Boston was as a group and what a good song ‘More Than a Feeling’ is.  Listen again and get the air guitar ready…

 

 





Reading and listening

10 11 2009

Three books I’d like to quickly mention…

Born to Run by Christopher McDougall: I saw McDougall on the Daily Show and heard about the Tarahumara while watching the show Last Man Standing.  This book came out during my fascination with my Vibram Five fingers (which I still think are amazing) and so may have been the target demographic for the book.  The author writes for Men’s Health and other magazines and you can definitely tell that from his writing style.  If you’re not a running enthusiast (not necessarily a hard core fanatic, just someone who enjoys running) the book might not appeal to you which is a shame because it goes off on two rather lengthy tangents that I think have a much wider appeal.  First, a discussion of how the running shoe-industrial complex came into being and has really bamboozled almost everyone with no proof that they improve a runner’s performance or prevent injury.  Secondly, is a great discussion about human evolution and an argument that humans have literally evolved to be running creatures.  Not running predators like cheetahs or wolves but rather persistence hunters.

John Dies @ the End by David Wong:  I picked this up on a whim and am very glad I did.  This book really defies any sort of summation but it is a horror-humor mix.  Allow me to quote one passage from the book to give you a feel for it:

A group of men carrying what had to be rifles stood around the vehicle, and John immediately reached out and punched the switch to kill his headlights.  Then it occurred to him that the lights suddenly going off might have been more noticeable.  So he punched them back on, thought he saw two of the men turn toward him, and then quickly turned the lights back off again.  Now he felt the stobing of his headlights was almost impossible not to notice; in fact, all of the men seemed to be looking up the hill at him.  The group might have either pursued him or raised their rifles to perforate his windshield had a gorilla riding a giant crab not leapt out of the woods and eaten two of them.

Dear readers, no amount of context would explain that paragraph.  The whole book makes you feel a bit disoriented like you’re just a bit thick and not getting it but its enjoyable enough to wait what passes for answers and resolution.  It elicited a dozen or so laughs out loud and a bunch of smirks so check it out if you want some light entertainment.

How to Cook Everything Vegetarian by Mark Bittman:  I’ve collected a small library of vegetarian cookbooks since going to the dark side way back in 1997 but this may allow me to throw all of them away.  It’s absolutely brilliant covering all the cooking basics, ideas for altering recipes and addressing all those vegetables you see in the supermarket and have no idea what to do with them.  The author assumes no cooking skill on the part (hence the instructions for making a green salad) but don’t assume the simple recipes are tasteless or boring.  I’ve done 5 or so meals out of this book so far (it’s massive at 800-900 pages) and each has been a hit.  In fact, I’ve officially made my wife a fan of cauliflower, something she swore she didn’t like at all.





Borderlands

4 11 2009

I’ve just gotten the new game Borderlands and having a couple days before the start of one of my never ending classes I decided to give it a spin.  I’m still a newbie when it comes to PC gaming and so don’t have a huge amount of experience to draw on in order to compare this with other.  My experience with first person shooters is limited, in fact, to Left4Dead and Team Fortress2.

Borderlands has a larger universe than either of those taking place on a post-apocalyptic, Mad Max style world.  The gameplay is pretty straightforward.  You get missions (almost always involving killing a bunch of mutant psychos, bandits, or local wildlife that’s looking to make you into a meal) and, if you survive them, you get rewarded.  I don’t think they’re breaking any molds here, yet the game is very addicting for a few reasons:

  1. Visuals:  The game is really quite stunning to look at.  It’s not overly realistic in its appearance and yet not too cartoonish either.  The landscapes are fantastic…so good in fact that after one mission in which I was surveying a sun scorched desert seeing nothing moving and only the corpses of a dozen or so skags I had just slaughtered littering the landscape I was overtaken by a sense of dispair.  I had, indeed, become death, destroyer of worlds.
  2. B.F. Skinner:  They totally figured out how to tickle that reward seeking part of your brain.  They advertise having ‘87 bazillion guns’ that you can win/find/buy/loot and I think they’re right.  You always want to see what’s next and before you know it, it’s 2 a.m.  Intermittent reinforcement, my boy.  That’s the name of the game.
  3. A kick-ass soundtrack.  The sounds are great in this game.  From the voice work to the mood music to the theme music.

Check out these vids (ideally at a high volume)…

 

Oh…and the best news?  They’re getting zombies





Seriously, Mike? Fuck off.

2 10 2009

I was reading this post by the Armchair Generalist yesterday and came across the above line in a discussion about an article by Michael O’Hanlon about our Afghan policy.  Even though I don’t agree with any of the players in this little debate I have to admit that I was totally captured by that one line.

I read it again.

And again.

It may have been the best thing I read all week.

So, I decided to look at the line in a bit more detail to figure out why I liked it so much.  After all, it’s just four words in two sentences.  Why did it entertain me so much?

Well, Let’s break it down, shall we?

Sentence 1:  “Seriously, Mike?”

Now the word ’seriously’ in this context really strikes a cord because, I believe, we’re so familiar with hearing it spoken.  How many times have we said (or been spoken to) with a ’seriously?’ with that tell all inflection at the end.  In fact, when I read it, that voice in my head added that inflection which is different from the typical NPR spokesperson voice that usually has news/blog post reading duty.  I believe that used this way, Seriously has (at least) three potential uses:

  1. Astonishment at some good news. ‘Hey, I just won the lottery!’  ‘Seriously?’
  2. Questioning the sanity of the speaker. ‘I didn’t sleep well last night.  The pixies kept trying to fly out of my ears.’  ‘Seriously?’
  3. Disgust and/or disdain that the speaker couldn’t think up a better lie. ‘I didn’t sleep with that woman!  We were naked together because we thought that we saw a black widow spider and wanted to make sure it didn’t crawl into our clothes and kill us!’  ‘Seriously?’

I think it’s safe to say that J was invoking points 2 and 3 in his ’seriously’ thereby conveying a lot of information in one word.

The word ‘Mike’ is just an added twist of the knife since it reducing the stature of O’Hanlon by using a familiar, almost diminutive form of his name.  It’s not the formal ‘Michael’ or the distant ‘Mr. O’Hanlon’ (which would really only fit if it was proceeded with the old favorite:  “I said GOOD DAY!’).  He could have pushed it a bit further by calling him something like ‘Mikey’ or ‘Mikey-boy’ but that might have been too much.  The use of the familiar reinforces the disdain conjured up by the proceeding ‘Seriously’.

Sentence 2:  “Fuck off.”

I don’t know if there’s much I can say here.  It’s short and to the point.  No wasted space.  With a virtual flick of his hand, J has dismissed O’Hanlon as unworthy of considering any further.  To write anything else would be to grant him more attention than his work dignified.  It really is a masterful use of a phrase that is usually overused and watered down.  But I’ll defer comment on the use of the word ‘fuck’ to the master:

I’m not sure if those two sentences could be improved but I thought if they could it probably only be by putting them in haiku format.  Here, therefore, is my attempt while seriously bending the traditional rules of haiku in order to shoe horn the phrase into the last line.  I could probably have done much better with a sonnet since I tend to be wordy.

Babbling as a brook

Surge troops in Afghanistan!

Seriously, Mike?  Fuck off.





For those dark and stormy nights…

22 09 2009

Well, autumn is fast approaching and you need some good horror literature to get you reved up for Halloween.  Don’t wait for the last minute or you’ll find the moment has passed you by and you’ll be accosted by Christmas carols before the first frost hits.

So, I humbly recommend (again) the podcast Underwood and Flinch from Mike Bennett.  In fact, I’d recommend just about anything Mike’s done.  He’s a good writer, but he’s an amazing storyteller.  He has that all too rare combination of abilities:  writing and acting talent.  He does all the voices in some very character heavy stories and you will get addicted to his work.

Underwood and Flinch is a vampire novel he’s written and bringing to audio format.  There are 16 episodes in the hopper which should keep anyone occupied for a decent amount of time but if you find yourself craving more you can check out his short story audio collection Hall of Mirrors.

It is a shame he is not signed with some media outlet (traditional publishing would be a waste of his voice talents) so check him out and if you dig him send a couple of bucks his way.





Go see District 9

19 08 2009

I just went to see District 9 today and it was quite good.

It doesn’t break any real conventions but it does provide all the elements of a good sci-fi movie:

  • good special effects (the aliens had a great look, avoiding the ‘it’s a dude in a rubber suit’ complex)
  • interesting aliens (it’s nice to see an alien race that has a culture that isn’t an obvious metaphor for a country on earth)
  • a good moral tale (It’s been accused of being a bit heavy handed but I didn’t think it was over the top)

And as an added benefit, you get to see a bunch of private military contractors get slagged in some pretty interesting ways.

The main (human) character is not the most sympathetic and plays a corporate drone until events force him to make some serious life changes.  The main (alien) character has a most sympathetic story but is so non-human looking that it’s hard to identify with him so you have an interesting dynamic where you aren’t necessarily behind any particular character through large parts of the movie.

It looks like there’s lots of room for additional goodies when the movie comes out on DVD since it seems that there was a whole bunch of back story only alluded to in the film.  There are clips in the trailers that weren’t in the movie so hopefully there will be some expanded content/deleted scenes as well.  I didn’t think seeing the movie on the big screen necessarily added to the experience and it should be almost as good on the TV.

Check it out.





You’ll thank me…

27 07 2009

I just recently found out that one of my favorite podcasts (the Seanachai) has, unbeknownst to me, returned to producing new material.  I’ve been catching up with past episodes and it’s clear that Patrick McLean is a very talented guy.  Originally, he committed to writing a short piece of fiction every week in 3-10 minute episodes and he has many more episodes which fall into the ‘killer’ rather than the ‘filler’ catagories.  Other projects have reduced his Seanachai work but he’s still plugging away and I recommend listening to his back catalog.

But for now I want to recommend one particular episode I just heard today.  If you’ve never followed up on my recommendations before or felt that I may have steered you wrong in the past take the 5 minutes and 50 seconds and I suspect you won’t doubt me again.

I thought I’ve had some tough editing done to my work in the past but that was positively minor league stuff compared to this.





Summer reading

24 06 2009

I’ve been working through some journal articles that have been stacking up in my ‘to read’ bin.

Training and Educating U.S. Intelligence Analysts (International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence vol22 no 1)  Stephen Marrin.

Interesting (although not particularly ground breaking) discussion of the challenges the community is facing circa 2008.  While the author confines his discussion to the federal IC, most of what he says applies to sub-national intelligence agencies as well.

He links a number of ideas that have been floated around for a few years.  I like his description of intelligence training being divided into two general camps (‘trainers vs. educators’) which roughly corresponds to the debate of intelligence as art versus science, craft versus profession, etc.  Ultimately settles on a none too surprising conclusion that a mix of both is what we need.  The devil, as they say, remains in the details of actually bringing such a system to fruition.

The best part of the paper is an unanswered question that everyone in charge of an analytical unit or designer of an analytical training program should ask themselves before they undertake any reform.

Do the training centers teach structured methods because they are the best way to do analysis, or do they teach structured methods because that’s what they can teach?…are the intelligence organizations emphasizing the value of structured methods because their application produces better analysis, or because the formal process of teaching these methods provides a way for the organizations to prove to external overseers that they are improving…?

The Intelligence Analyst as Epistemologist (International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence vol19 no 4)  Mathew Herbert

Very interesting (if somewhat dense) article that argues that “[i]ntelligence analysis, unlike many mature professions, lacks an agreed, unified methodology and the experts necessary for regulating one.”  That lack of shared paradigm allows all sorts of snake oil salesmen to sell (often times literally) their wares and drown out more rigorously done analysis.

What is required, Herbert asserts, is

  • an emphasis on difference between  what is known and what is believed
  • an ability to understand and communicate the level of probability or uncertainty in both individual assumptions as well as how uncertainties within a chain of reasoning interact with each other
  • an understanding of key information which is unknown but could alter a particular analytical judgment (those pesky Rumsfeldian ‘known unknowns’)

Definitely worth a second read.

Political Scrutiny and Control of Scandinavia’s Security and Intelligence Services (International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence vol13 no 2) Geoffrey R. Weller

An overview of domestic intelligence scandals in Sweden, Norway and Denmark from post WWII to the mid-90s and the differing responses from the various governments.  It’s particularly interesting to read this article (written in 2000) from a post 9/11 viewpoint where intelligence services were given much wider latitude in their activities among domestic populations.

If you aren’t particularly interested in the region, here’s the relevant bit for wherever you are:

The Scandinavian experience of controversy in relation to the security and iintelligence serves indicates clearly that control that blends protection for citizens and a need for efficient iintelligence agencies is extremely difficult to achieve, even in nations with a strong democratic tradition and a strong tradition of parliamentary supremacy.

Or, may I add, with a popular leader promising change and a more open, transparent government. (H/T A. Sullivan)

Harsh Lessons:  Roman Intelligence in the Hannibalic War (International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence vol17 no 3) Daniel A. Fournie
Caesar, Intelligence, and Ancient Britain ((International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence vol15 no 1) Rose Mary Sheldon

I mention these together not only because they cover similar subject matter (intelligence in ancient Rome) but because the Fournie piece was heavily influenced by the work of Sheldon.

If you have an interest in ancient Rome or military history I’d recommend both of these pieces.   They do an admirable job of taking sparse source material to talk about ideas and concepts which weren’t developed at the time.   Even though I was familiar with both military conflicts I have to admit I never thought of them from an intelligence perspective.  Good stuff.