Numerous agencies are reporting that Syria has been giving Hezbollah loads of SCUD and anti-aircraft missiles (I couldn’t see any reference to what type…it’d be interesting if it was these though as it might explain the mystery of the Arctic Sea).
The real question is why the hell would Hezbollah what those things?
Israeli military experts say if the reports are true the missiles would not change the military balance in the region because Hizbollah already has missiles capable of striking much of Israel.
Allow me to say I know virtually nothing about this subject so these are just some off the cuff questions/observations:
Are SCUDs likely to be decisive in any way (assuming a conventional or even chemical warhead)? Perhaps this is being driven by internal Syrian/Hezbollah politics but it really seems like a bit of dangerous penis envy to me. The prospect of SCUDs falling on Israeli cities is unlikely to make Hezbollah a sympathetic character in the resulting Israeli invasion, even if they’re particularly brutal about it. I suspect the visuals of medium range ballistic missiles falling will evoke a different set of emotions than say a car bomb, puny rockets or even militants clashing with the Israeli army.
I’ve noticed a tendency (or at least it seems like one) of organizations (be they networked insurgencies or criminal organizations) to reach a certain level of ability and then decide to abandon the qualities that had gotten them so far in favor of aping ‘traditional’ organizations (usually governmental). I’m not sure if this is due to a belief that such a move would make them more effective or it’s a case of secretly loving what one hates but usually madcap hilarity and disaster ensue…As an example, there’s one street gang that likes to use military terminology in order to project an image of discipline and order. That can be a bit tough however when just about everyone is a ‘general’ of some sort or another and you’re hard pressed to find someone under the rank of ‘captain’.
I thought I read an article about Hezbollah’s use of drones and how they were going to be able to fill the skies with ‘virtual kamikazes’ that could be guided with precision into Israeli airspace. Now they’re going with 1970s technology in big, bulky launchers that will be screaming invitations for airstrikes and spec ops missions?
Is this a similar neurosis? Is Hezbollah thinking ‘Hey, nations have missiles. We want to be a nation. So, we need missiles.’?
Maybe it’s just a bargaining chip? Bring missiles in you weren’t intending on really using so that you can trade them away for something substantial?